NHL playoff tiers and buyer/seller 1.0: Where each team stands at American Thanksgiving

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American Thanksgiving is an important date on the NHL calendar, and not just for the turkey and The Athletic’s Black Friday sale. It’s a traditional point in the season — roughly one-quarter of the way in — when general managers have a good idea of what kind of teams they have and need to start making decisions on what to do about it.

Last season, 12 of 16 eventual-playoff teams were in playoff position by Turkey Day, Nov. 25, and all 16 were within 0.15 points per game of being in the field. That follows a historical trend.

So, yes, the trade deadline is still three-plus months away and the playoffs are still nearly five months away, but it’s not too early to look at which teams are headed in which direction.

To do so, The Athletic asked the writers who know each NHL team best two questions: 1) How confident are you in the team’s playoff chances? And 2) Will the team be a buyer or a seller at the deadline?

Here’s what they said.

Record: 6-13-1, 8th in Pacific

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: The Ducks are the worst team in the NHL. They’ve got three of their top six defensemen (John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov) and a solid backup goalie (Anthony Stolarz) hitting unrestricted-free-agent status this summer. The term left on the contracts for veteran forwards Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg is becoming more manageable. There is plenty of cap room to be a third-party facilitator and obtain an extra asset. Why wait until the trade deadline? General manager Pat Verbeek reportedly has the market open now. — Eric Stephens

Record: 7-9-2, 7th in Central

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Coyotes have a handful of pending unrestricted free agents who could be useful rentals, topped by power-play QB Shayne Gostisbehere, and the group also includes two moderately priced forwards — Nick Ritchie ($2.5 million) and Nick Bjugstad ($900,000). Now that he’s healthy and playing, the odds greatly increase that Jakob Chychrun (this year plus two more at $4.6 million) also moves on to a contender. So Wednesday’s trade of Conor Timmins to the Maple Leafs won’t be their last of the season. But the Coyotes’ main deadline role could be as a third-party broker for teams trying to squeeze a player onto their roster that they don’t have the salary-cap space to accommodate. Arizona is 31st of 32 teams in payroll, and thus has lots of available cap space to auction off for the right deal. — Eric Duhatschek

Record: 17-3-0, 1st in Atlantic

Playoff tier: They’re a lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: This could be the last championship run for Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. It is management’s mandate to make this roster as bulletproof as possible while the window remains open. — Fluto Shinzawa

Record: 9-11-0, 7th in Atlantic

Playoff tier: It’s a long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Sabres have shown some life with a recent two-game winning streak, but they dug themselves a hole by losing eight in a row in regulation. It would take a heroic effort for this young team to climb the standings and get into the playoffs. While they don’t have a ton of pieces to sell, I imagine the Sabres’ phone lines will be open at the deadline if teams are interested in some of their older players. — Matthew Fairburn

Record: 9-7-3, 4th in Pacific

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: After a slow start to the season, the Flames are starting to see production and confidence from Jonathan Huberdeau. Nazem Kadri continues to be a fit. They have a workable first-line trio in Elias Lindholm, Adam Ruzicka and Tyler Toffoli. Despite whatever early-season challenges they’ve faced, the Flames are in a wild-card spot and are trending in the right direction. Regardless of playoff position, we expect the Flames to seek a top-nine scoring winger at the deadline. General manager Brad Treliving has been searching for one since training camp. — Julian McKenzie and Hailey Salvian

Record: 10-6-4, 3rd in Metro

Playoff tier: They’re a lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Hurricanes haven’t played their best hockey this season but still find themselves as one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. They’ll get a big in-house addition before the trade deadline once Max Pacioretty returns, but Carolina will also likely look to bolster its lineup for the stretch run. The biggest need at this moment — assuming everyone is healthy — is probably a third-pairing defenseman who can provide a little offense and run the second power-play unit. — Cory Lavalette

Record: 6-10-3, 8th in Central

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Blackhawks deserve credit for their surprisingly competitive start, but scrappy only takes you so far in the NHL, and they’ve come back to Earth quite a bit with 11 losses (three in overtime or a shootout) in their past 13 games. Injuries to Seth Jones, Tyler Johnson and Alex Stalock surely have played a role in the downturn, but the fact is the Blackhawks look overwhelmed more often than not. And that’s by design, of course. So all options are on the table, including flipping the likes of Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou and Jack Johnson for picks, and moving Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews if the two franchise pillars waive their no-movement clauses. The Blackhawks are open for business. — Mark Lazerus

Record: 11-6-1, 2nd in Central

Playoff tier: They’re a lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: The Avalanche are in a window of Stanley Cup contention, and they will do what they can to maximize their chances of repeating as champions. This isn’t a front office that acts rashly — Joe Sakic never traded a first-round pick until 2021, when he needed to acquire a goalie — but it’s one unafraid of making aggressive moves. Last deadline, for example, the team added Artturi Lehkonen, who was on the first line for the Cup-clinching Game 6, as well as a top-four defenseman in Josh Manson, a dressing-room leader in forward Andrew Cogliano and a depth piece in Nico Sturm. The team could use another middle-six forward, ideally one who can play center, and extra defense is never a bad thing. — Peter Baugh

Record: 7-11-1, 8th in Metro

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Due to a double-whammy of a start — first dreadful play, then an unimaginable wave of injuries to big-ticket players — the Blue Jackets’ season is over before it really got started. Even if the Blue Jackets were healthy, their 3-9-0 start would make for an uphill climb in the standings. But with defenseman Zach Werenski (shoulder) lost for the season, and Patrik Laine (ankle) out for several weeks, they’ve got virtually no chance to make up ground the rest of the way. Who’s running the point on their top power-play unit? Marcus Bjork. (Admit it, you’ve never heard of him.) — Aaron Portzline

Record: 12-5-3, 1st in Central

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The most accurate answer is that the Stars will likely stand pat at the deadline. They’re in a tight cap situation so they can’t just add talent by sending out future assets (prospects, draft picks). The two moves to keep on the radar are trading away Anton Khudobin and/or Denis Gurianov. Both players are on expiring deals. Khudobin will be much harder to move, as he will have to be prolific in the AHL and the acquiring team will have to feel it can translate to the NHL once again. Gurianov is a young talent who has value. If the Stars want to move him, it would require him to play well and for the right deal to materialize. — Saad Yousuf

Record: 10-5-4, 3rd in Atlantic

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Detroit’s underlying numbers are more concerning than their record, and they could go from “bubble” to “long shot” over the course of the next month — and the best guess is still that they’ll be on the wrong side of that bubble when all is said and done. Still, though, that’s an improvement over past seasons, and the Red Wings don’t look like they’ll go down without a fight. The real question, when it comes to the deadline, is whether they’re more likely to sell or stand pat. Buying (or at least renting) feels unlikely until they’re more of a sure thing, but you could see a case for them to forego a fire sale if they’re still hanging around that bubble come February. — Max Bultman

Record: 10-10-0, 5th in Pacific

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: They should be a tier above this, with the other “safe bets.” Should. The Oilers have underachieved so far while playing in a poor division and having the best player in the world on their team. Logically, they still should make the playoffs without much of an issue, but general manager Ken Holland needs to find a way to add to this team, namely on defense. It’ll be difficult because the Oilers are using long-term injured reserve cap space and don’t have many moveable contracts. These are the peak Connor McDavid years, though, and the Oilers need reinforcements. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman

Record: 10-8-2, 5th in Atlantic

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Panthers’ bubble designation is probably a bit of a surprise, given their 2022 Presidents’ Trophy and current talent level, but check out the standings — there they are. They’ve got good things going on underneath the hood, sitting in the top five in expected goals percentage and high-danger scoring change percentage, but they’re chasing three elite teams in the Atlantic and the Rangers and Penguins in the wild-card race. It won’t be easy. Some deadline help would be nice, particularly on the blue line, but they’re on track to be capped out. — Sean Gentille

Record: 11-9-2, 3rd in Pacific

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Provided they get better goaltending than they have so far, the Kings have a little more offensive punch and still play a tight system that does well over a long schedule. Vegas might run away with the Pacific, but the other two guaranteed division playoff spots could stay wide open. At worst, the Kings should be in the mix for a wild-card berth. But they’ve long had a need for a top-four defender with a left-hand shot to balance out the right-heavy blue line. A proven third-line center or another scoring winger as a rental is down the list but wouldn’t hurt. Where they are in their evolution, it is time to be adding at the deadline rather than subtracting. — Eric Stephens

Record: 9-8-2, 5th in Central

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Wild have been the prototypical .500 team thus far and have had major issues scoring, being without three of last season’s top six forwards for much of this season (the traded Kevin Fiala and the injured Ryan Hartman and Jordan Greenway). Wild general manager Bill Guerin acquired Ryan Reaves on Wednesday to add size, swagger, ruggedness and energy to the bottom six and confirmed a report from The Athletic that he’s looking for help in the top six. — Michael Russo

Record: 10-9-1, 6th in Atlantic

Playoff tier: It’s a long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: After some surprising performances out of the gate, the Canadiens have come back to Earth lately to remind us that the flaws surrounding this team are very real. They want to establish a winning mentality and would welcome a spot in the playoffs with open arms, but they are expected to miss the cut, and that has not changed. Any other outcome would be outlandish. And once they recognize they’re out of the hunt, the Canadiens are not just going to be sellers, they are likely to sell aggressively. That’s, in part, what their roster is designed to do. — Marc Antoine Godin

Record: 9-9-2, 6th in Central

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: It’s been an underwhelming start for the Predators — a recent 4-0-1 homestand upgrading it from disastrous — but Juuse Saros is finally looking like himself and the power play is functioning again. This looks like a lock of a bubble team. David Poile’s recent history tells us that means he will treat it like a team that should be sacrificing futures to get better now, even if it shouldn’t. — Joe Rexrode

Record: 16-4-0, 1st in Metro

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Devils have had one of the best starts in the league. If they continue at this rate, they should be a lock for the playoffs. But a “safe bet” is a bit more of a comfortable projection than a lock, given we know how quickly things can go south. As such, the team should be a buyer — but they probably aren’t going to be too aggressive just yet. It’s the start of their playoff window, which should keep them a bit more reserved. Maybe “buying” looks like keeping Damon Severson as an internal rental instead of flipping the pending unrestricted free agent at the deadline. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 13-8-0, 2nd in Metro

Playoff tier: On the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Islanders are a veteran team that wants to challenge for a Stanley Cup this season, and they also have a very specific need — another forward or two. It’s been that way dating back to last season’s trade deadline, when general manager Lou Lamoriello did nothing, and then he followed it up with an equally uneventful offseason. While the Islanders have been more effective offensively this season than many may have expected, there still isn’t enough high-end talent up front to consider them a true contender. Lamoriello has to do something at some point, right? — Kevin Kurz

New York Rangers

Record: 10-7-4, 4th in Metro

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Rangers’ recent stretch of good results has matched some consistently good play this season. Igor Shesterkin has brought his game back to a high level, and Adam Fox has been at that high level all season long. In a crowded Metro division, no one can match their combination of elite goaltending and high-end skill. — Arthur Staple

Record: 6-12-1, 8th in Atlantic

Playoff tier: It’s a long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Here we are again, Sens fans. It’s American Thanksgiving and your favorite team is stuck in the basement of the standings. It wasn’t supposed to be this way, after the “Summer of Pierre.” The Senators injected some much-needed talent into the roster and were supposed to be a fun, high-scoring team with the potential for flirting with a playoff spot if everything fell into place. But at the 20-game mark, we’re seeing what happens when everything goes wrong in Ottawa. We’re not quite at the stage of needing a Hamburglar run to salvage the season, but we’re pretty darn close. The Senators have better odds of landing Connor Bedard (13.5 percent) than they do of making the playoffs right now (10.3 percent). And if we’re looking ahead to the trade deadline, Ottawa could have some interesting situations to deal with in Artem Zub and Alex DeBrincat. Do both players want to stay here long-term — or are they going to turn into trade pieces? — Ian Mendes

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 10-7-3, 5th in Metro

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: I would still bet on the Penguins being a playoff team, but it’s hardly a lock. The Devils and Hurricanes are clearly the two best teams in the Metro Division right now. There’s a good chance the Penguins, Rangers and Islanders will be fighting for two spots. It will be quite a battle. That the Penguins still have a large number of home games remaining on their schedule will be helpful, and my guess is that the Penguins and Rangers will reach the postseason. Penguins general manager Ron Hextall will probably acquire some help at the deadline, but don’t expect a blockbuster. That pesky salary cap is a real problem. — Josh Yohe

Record: 7-8-5, 6th in Metro

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Flyers’ losing streak hit eight games Wednesday, and with Carter Hart falling back into the realm of mere mortals, they now look like the team most thought they would be heading into the season. Is part of the issue a devastating rash of injuries that has knocked out most of their projected top six up front? Sure. But the distinct lack of game-changing, high-end talent was always going to rear its head. It’s just been expedited by the injuries. This doesn’t at all look like a playoff-caliber team. — Charlie O’Connor

Record: 7-12-3, 7th in Pacific

Playoff tier: It’s a long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Mike Grier has avoided making statements about specific expectations for this season, other than fielding a team he hopes is competitive and plays hard. His first team as general manager has done that … but it is also near the bottom of the league in points percentage. Whether Grier goes beyond just looking to trade the pending unrestricted free agents could be a big hint at how long he believes the re-making of San Jose’s roster into a future playoff/Stanley Cup contender is going to take. — Corey Masisak

Record: 11-5-3, 2nd in Pacific

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Not to take anything away from Seattle’s start, but this is a team I can see just missing the playoffs. Right now, they’re a disruptor in the Western Conference and surprising teams. But I won’t be surprised if the team sells a bit at the deadline just to position itself better for the future. With the right moves, maybe the Kraken find a way to strengthen their chances next year, to build on the progress they’ve made. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 10-9-0, 4th in Central

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Two weeks ago, when the Blues were mired in an eight-game losing streak, I would’ve labeled them a long shot to make the playoffs and guaranteed they’d be sellers at the trade deadline. But they followed that up with a seven-game winning streak, which has changed the outlook on the season. They’re playing like the club most expected, and now that they’re back in the Western Conference playoff race, trading the likes of Vladimir Tarasenko and/or Ryan O’Reilly doesn’t seem so certain — for now. — Jeremy Rutherford

Record: 11-7-1, 4th in Atlantic

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Lightning have been aggressive at the deadline the past few years — including acquiring Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul last spring — and they should be busy again. They’ve been to three straight Finals and have the kind of team they hope can make another run. But with their depth decreased due to cap casualties, they’ll have needs. — Joe Smith

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 11-5-5, 2nd in Atlantic

Playoff tier: They’re a lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: This team has so much at stake this season that there’s no doubt of their buyer — aggressive buyer — status. And the Leafs, despite ranking near the top of the league amid a bumpy, injured-riddled start, have clear needs right now. They will almost certainly need to add an impact defenceman to replace Jake Muzzin, along with a higher-end forward to play in their top six. More depth in goal wouldn’t hurt either. — Jonas Siegel

Record: 7-10-3, 6th in Pacific

Playoff tier: It’s a long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: The Canucks have to be one of the NHL’s most disappointing teams, off to a nightmare start for the third straight season. And while they’re not quite out of it yet — Dom Luszczyszyn’s model still gives them a decent shot of qualifying for the playoffs — there’s very little confidence in this marketplace of their ability to turn it around, particularly given the constant off-ice drama that surrounds them. On the ice, the Canucks are a mess on the blue line, awful on the penalty kill, and Thatcher Demko has surprisingly disappointed, among other factors. The club’s shocking tendency of blowing leads points to a lack of chemistry and resilience as a group. Vancouver’s still relatively new management team doubled down on this group in its first offseason, a regrettable choice in retrospect. Assuming this season continues to go sideways, they can’t afford to miss another opportunity to use the trade deadline to net future assets. — Thomas Drance and Harman Dayal

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 16-4-1, 1st in Pacific

Playoff tier: They’re a lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Golden Knights are on pace for 129 points, are projected to finish among the league’s top three teams and have a 99 percent probability of making the playoffs. I’m not sure if they’ll reach that lofty point total, but I think it’s safe to consider Vegas a lock to make the postseason once again. I expect the Golden Knights to buy at the deadline, but their options could be limited to mid-to-low-salary players due to the cap. Owner Bill Foley hinted to me last month that the club could be in the market for a winger around the $3 million cap hit range. — Jesse Granger

Washington Capitals

Record: 8-10-3, 7th in Metro

Playoff tier: They’ll be on the bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Caps have qualified for the playoffs eight straight seasons and 14 of the past 15. That run, however, could be in serious jeopardy should the aging, injury-plagued team fail to get into gear — and soon. The math is already starting to look a bit daunting for Alex Ovechkin and company at 8-10-3. If things don’t improve, general manager Brian MacLellan could find himself in an unfamiliar position at the March trade deadline: the role of seller. The roster features 13 unrestricted and three restricted free agents, giving MacLellan plenty of flexibility. So, yeah, it’s not a stretch to say the next few weeks could determine the short- and long-term future of the franchise. — Tarik El-Bashir

Record: 11-6-1, 3rd in Central

Playoff tier: Should be a safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: If all goes well from here to the trade deadline, it will mean Winnipeg weathered the storm without Nikolaj Ehlers. He’ll be back with the team after abdominal surgery and ideally rounding into form. The Jets’ success so far has been more than just Connor Hellebuyck, and they might reasonably be thought of as buyers if things continue down this road, but with a deep defense and Ehlers’ likely return, I suspect any additions are more about tweaks than massive changes. The worse-case scenario of a horrible collapse and a jettisoning of veteran talent seems to have passed. — Murat Ates

At a glance

Playoff tiers and buyers/sellers 1.0, with current points percentage:

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF TIER BUYER/SELLER POINTS %

Lock

Agg. buyer

.850

Lock

Agg. buyer

.643

Lock

Buyer

.600

Safe bet

Buyer

.800

Safe bet

Buyer

.605

Safe bet

Buyer

.571

Bubble

Buyer

.619

Bubble

Buyer

.575

Bubble

Buyer

.550

Bubble

Seller

.632

Bubble

Seller

.452

Long shot

Seller

.450

Long shot

Seller

.342

Long shot

Agg. seller

.525

Not happening

Seller

.395

Not happening

Seller

.475
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF TIER BUYER/SELLER POINTS %

Lock

Agg. buyer

.639

Lock

Buyer

.786

Safe bet

Buyer

.675

Safe bet

Buyer

.639

Safe bet

Buyer

.553

Safe bet

Buyer

.545

Bubble

Buyer

.526

Bubble

Buyer

.526

Bubble

Buyer

.500

Bubble

Buyer

.500

Bubble

Seller

.658

Long shot

Seller

.386

Long shot

Agg. seller

.425

Not happening

Seller

.444

Not happening

Seller

.395

Not happening

Agg. seller

.325

(Top photo of Alex Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)



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