Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team’s projected point total, its probability of making the playoffs, and its odds of advancing to each subsequent round, including winning the Stanley Cup.
The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health, and their strength of schedule (which includes opponent strength, venue and rest). Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA) and can be found at the bottom of the article, along with a link to team depth charts containing projected GSVA values for each player. You can read more about GSVA and the model here.
This page will be updated each morning. Click to expand any chart for a larger view.
All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Last updated: December 6, 2022, 9:15 A.M. EST
1st Pick Probability
The probabilities listed above are based on each team’s expected win percentage. For a closer look at how each team is currently rated and why, you can examine each team’s depth chart by division at the links below. Depth charts will be updated weekly and will reflect current injuries. The depth charts contain each player’s projected value. You can find their actual value for this season here.
Atlantic | Metropolitan | Central | Pacific