Fire Josh McDaniels, Nathaniel Hackett? Why history of one-and-done coaches says that’s a bad idea

With so much pressure to win now and the insatiable desire for instant gratification, it has become a nearly annual exercise to rush to reach an immediate conclusion on a head coach’s ability to do his job.

This season, the heat has centered primarily around Josh McDaniels of the Raiders and Nathaniel Hackett of the Broncos. Every loss or questionable coaching decision has sounded the sirens on social media.

And just as there’s merit to some of the criticism, it’s also important to level the scale by weighing the other side. A degree of patience is almost always necessary, as one-and-done coaches have far more frequently signaled organizational dysfunction and set back teams for years rather than turning into quick fixes under a new regime.

At this point, Raiders owner Mark Davis is willing to tolerate a more deliberate growth process. Davis has given assurances to McDaniels that he’ll return in 2023, according to a team official. The owner committed to a long-term vision when he hired McDaniels and general Dave Ziegler from the Patriots, and that hasn’t changed despite the 3-7 start.

Hackett’s future is more of a mystery because he wasn’t hired by the Broncos’ new ownership group, which took over in August. The Broncos (3-7) have scored the fewest points in the NFL despite Hackett’s experience on that side of the ball, the acquisition of quarterback Russell Wilson and his five-year, $242 million contract. Since the regular season began, Hackett has hired a coach to help with in-game management and relinquished play-calling duties.

It’s unclear how Denver’s ownership will assess Hackett’s performance, because there’s no precedent. No one knows if they’ll feel loyalty to anyone in leadership positions on the football side. It’s also possible the owners will be hesitant to make an impulsive decision and scare off future coaching candidates.

But we’ll find out how they feel soon enough.

One thing we can know right now is whether history suggests firing a coach after one season is a good idea.

Since the 1970 merger, there have been 29 one-and-done coaches spread across 17 organizations, including abrupt resignations from Lou Holtz (Jets, 1976) and Bobby Petrino (Falcons, 2007). The Athletic studied each case to uncover common threads and the lessons that can be learned with these decisions.

Organizational dysfunction

What would have become of the Patriots dynasty if team owner Robert Kraft had fired head coach Bill Belichick after he lost 13 of his first 18 games on the job? (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick has said it took until his fourth season to get his system fully in place, including the necessary players to operate it. Imagine, then, if the Patriots fired him after he lost 13 of his first 18 games on the job.

Granted, not every coach deserves to reach a fourth season, nor does every coach buy that much time by winning a Super Bowl in his second season. But far more often than not, it is organizational malpractice to draw a conclusion on a coach by the end of his first year. Consider, of the 29 one-and-done coaches, only two took over teams that had reached the playoffs a year earlier.

These impulsive decisions start with ownership, and the ramifications trickle down to the on-field product. Twenty of the 22 owners who employed a one-and-done head coach never won a Super Bowl after that coach’s departure, including nine current owners who still have a chance to edit that statistic. Ed DeBartolo (five Super Bowls with the 49ers) and Paul Allen (one with the Seahawks) are the exceptions.

Interestingly, three owners won Super Bowls before they fired a coach after a single season: Al Davis (three with the Raiders), Jack Kent Cooke (three with Washington) and Packers president/chairman/CEO Bob Harlan (one). The relative lack of success afterward was indicative of other problems throughout the organization, and accountability must start at the top.

Now, filter down a level. Along with those 29 one-and-done coaches, 11 general managers were also gone after that season. One general manager, Mike Lombardi with the Browns, was a one-and-done along with coach Rob Chudzinski.

Three GMs — Lombardi, Trent Baalke with the Jaguars and Nick Caserio with the Texans — had a one-and-done coach in their first season on the job. Two GMs — Baalke and Joe Thomas with the 49ers — were fired after employing an unfathomable back-to-back one-and-done coaches.

The lack of consistency has led to chaos on the field. Each general manager has a unique vision. Each coach wants certain types of players. When those goals change year over year, it takes that much longer to catch up.

Therefore, it shouldn’t be a surprise that it took an average of 3.9 seasons for these teams to return to the playoffs after their one-and-done coach’s departure. (This data excludes the Texans and Jaguars, who had one-and-done coaches in 2021.) Only six teams made the playoffs the following season.

Of the 27 coaches who succeeded the one-and-done examples — again, excluding Lovie Smith of the Texans and Doug Pederson of the Jaguars — 13 failed to make the playoffs during their tenure. Five made only one playoff appearance, including active coaches Kevin Stefanski (Browns) and Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals), each of whom don’t look poised to reach the postseason this year, either. So two-thirds of these successors either failed to reach the playoffs or sustain any momentum with more than one postseason appearance.

Two one-and-done successors — Bill Walsh with the 49ers and Pete Carroll with the Seahawks — won Super Bowls.

In the vast majority of these cases, there was a lack of self-awareness from the decision-makers. Of the 29 one-and-done coaches, they took over for teams that hadn’t been to the playoffs in an average of 5.1 seasons. Twenty took over for teams that hadn’t made the playoffs in at least three years. Fifteen hadn’t made the playoffs in at least four years.

So what did these owners expect? While the coaches don’t deserve total absolution from culpability, they were often joining organizations that had been poorly run for years prior to their arrival.

The 29 coaches had a combined record of 124-313-2 (.282 winning percentage) during their one-and-done seasons. Two had winning records. Two went 8-8. Twenty-five had losing campaigns.

They were part of the problem to varying extents. But what if the 49ers fired Walsh after he went 2-14 in 1979? Or the Giants axed Bill Parcells after his 3-12-1 start in 1983? Or the Steelers ousted Chuck Noll after he went 1-13 in 1969?

While patience hardly guarantees extraordinary success, the data shows a quick coaching hook has done more harm than good, and it has been indicative of bigger problems in the organization.

Product of the times

The eras reveal interesting splits.

There were eight one-and-done coaches from 1970-78, probably a result of a newly merged league and teams trying to figure out how to best conduct business.

That settled from there, as there was just a single one-and-done from 1979-89. Then, there were five from 1990-99 and six from 2000-09.

Those numbers spiked to nine one-and-dones from 2010-21, so it has become more common as the league has generated exponentially more money, particularly through media deals. There’s an understandable urge to win and be relevant, so teams are moving on more quickly than ever in an effort to find lightning in a bottle. A new wave of younger coaches with innovative offensive minds has surely caused owners to look over their shoulders to hire the “Next Big Thing” before someone else can.

But again, the risk has exceeded the reward.

Necessary splits

Not all one-and-dones are created equal.

Last season, the Jaguars absolutely had to fire Urban Meyer, who lost 11 of 13 games but also embarrassed the organization off the field. Bobby Petrino wasn’t exactly a breath of fresh air in Atlanta before he quit with a 3-10 record in 2007. (Like Lou Holtz with the Jets, Petrino was included in the data for this story to illustrate the damage a one-and-done coach can have on an organization.)

Neither hire was overly popular, either. In fact, many around the NFL were taken aback with the Jaguars’ decision to hire Meyer in 2021. A better vetting process could have spared each organization from their ordeals. It’s fair to wonder if quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a young Jacksonville team would be further along in their development had it not been for the decision to hire Meyer.

Falcons general manager Rich McKay was subsequently reassigned after that disastrous Petrino season, and Jaguars GM Trent Baalke should be under the microscope on the heels of overseeing an unprecedented third season with a one-and-done coach, including two with the 49ers.

The Falcons bounced back with Mike Smith, who went 66-46 with four playoff appearances in seven seasons, and the Jaguars appear to be on the way back under the widely respected Pederson.

Success stories

The 49ers were a team in turmoil during the 1970s. Then team owner Ed DeBartolo hired Bill Walsh in 1979, stuck by him through a 2-14 debut season, then watched him turn the 49ers into one of the best franchises in the NFL. (Arthur Anderson / Getty Images)

It is indeed possible to recover from a one-and-done.

The best example involved the 1970s 49ers. Ed DeBartolo bought the team in 1977 and made the egregious decision of hiring Joe Thomas as his general manager.

Thomas, who frequently clashed with coaches in a prior stop as the Colts GM, immediately fired coach Monte Clark after he went 8-6 in his first season in 1976. Thomas then hired and fired one-and-done coaches Ken Meyer and Pete McCulley before DeBartolo came to his senses and canned Thomas.

Then DeBartolo hired Bill Walsh as head coach and general manager. DeBartolo clearly learned from his transgressions with Thomas and stuck by Walsh through a 2-14 record in 1979 and a 6-10 mark in 1980. Walsh led the Niners to Super Bowl victories in 1981, 1984 and 1988.

The Seahawks also landed on their feet. They fired Jim Mora Jr. after he went 5-11 in his first season in 2009 and replaced him with Pete Carroll after his tenure at USC. Carroll — himself a one-and-done with the Jets in 1994 – has since led the Seahawks to nine playoff appearances and a Super Bowl victory.

While the Super Bowl is always the goal, there are other ways to measure success. The Jets, under new owner Woody Johnson, surprisingly fired Al Groh after he went 9-7 in 2000. Groh’s successor, Herm Edwards, led the Jets to the playoffs three times in five seasons.

Similarly, Washington fired Bill Austin after his lone season in 1970 and hired George Allen, who made five postseason appearances in seven seasons.

The 49ers hope to be repeating history. They had back-to-back one-and-dones with Jim Tomsula in 2015 and Chip Kelly in 2016, but Kyle Shanahan has them in position to make the playoffs for the third time in six seasons.

Surely, it’s best to avoid a one-and-done situation, but teams have shown it’s not impossible to recover if the right hire is made on the back end and the correct leadership is in place to help the new regime sustain that success.

But more often than not …

… It just doesn’t work out.

To spotlight several more examples on the more common side of the spectrum, the Patriots had their lone one-and-done coach (Rod Rust, 1-15 in 1990) during the worst and most dysfunctional stretch in team history. Robert Kraft, who stabilized a floundering organization, was the Patriots’ fourth owner in a short spurt from 1988 to ’94.

Marty Schottenheimer was 8-8 during his only season in Washington in 2001. Schottenheimer made the playoffs in 11 of his previous 15 years as head coach of the Browns and Chiefs, and he had a losing record in just two of his 20 years in the league. Owner Dan Snyder, who bought the team in 1999, fired Schottenheimer after one season in favor of a splash hire in Steve Spurrier, who went 12-20 while failing to adjust to the pro game.

In 2012, the Raiders hired general manager Reggie McKenzie, who fired Hue Jackson after his 8-8 season. It was tied for the Raiders’ best record during an awful stretch from 2003 to ’15. McKenzie wanted to hire his own coach, Dennis Allen, who lasted only two and a half years and went 8-28.

Last season, the Texans shockingly about-faced on David Culley, who got a team low on talent to play hard down the stretch. It was viewed around the league as a lack of discipline and decisiveness from owner Cal McNair.

Again, the most common thread has been a lack of leadership. Perhaps those coaches wouldn’t have worked out if given more time, but who hired the coaches? And then, as executives attempt to salvage their jobs, it’s hardly uncommon to uncover a power struggle in the front office.

As situations deteriorate and front offices and coaching staffs turn over, teams wind up in a years-long spin cycle of turbulence. The one-and-done coach isn’t ever the sole reason for such a backslide, but the majority of these examples have revealed why teams have struggled so mightily before and after their one-and-done decisions.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Kevin Sabitus, Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)