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It would have been so awkward. Picture the highest-ranking members of the Cubs’ organization, dressed in their tailored sport coats and quarter-zip pullovers, filing in to face the crowd at the Sheraton Grand Chicago. The team just released the schedule for the 2023 Cubs Convention, stuffing one day (Jan. 14) with Q&A sessions for the Ricketts family, club presidents Jed Hoyer (baseball operations) and Crane Kenney (business operations), general manager Carter Hawkins, and manager David Ross and his major-league coaching staff. Instead of venting their frustrations on Twitter or canceling season-ticket packages or cutting the cord from Marquee Sports Network, the diehards could directly tell management how they really feel.
Of course, there will still be awkward moments. That’s what happens when you pack Cubs fans into a hotel ballroom, set up microphones and direct club executives onto a stage for recorded events. It’s a small part of what makes the Cubs so unique — and kind of a circus — as Dansby Swanson will find out after reaching an agreement on a seven-year, $177 million contract that altered the perception of another rebuild at Wrigley Field.
The arrival of Swanson — an All-Star shortstop with a Gold Glove and a World Series ring — will change those conversations. Because the Cubs don’t have to answer the dreaded question: How could you go 0-for-4 on the top free-agent shortstops and still call this a successful offseason?
There’s an old NFL quote that Bill Belichick once attributed to Buddy Ryan: “If you listen to the fans, you’ll be sitting up there with them.” There’s truth embedded in that statement, a reminder to stay disciplined and focused on the process that Hoyer’s front office emphasizes in every decision. The Ricketts family bought the team 13 years ago knowing that millions of fans show up to Wrigley Field — whether the Cubs are winning or losing — and that $845 million investment is now estimated to be worth roughly $4 billion.
Ignoring the fans isn’t a smart strategy, either. They saw all the construction in Wrigleyville before and after the 2016 World Series and watched the Cubs sit out the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado sweepstakes. They largely understood the plan when Theo Epstein and Hoyer first took over baseball operations after the 2011 season. But passing on Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts — after trading Yu Darvish, non-tendering Kyle Schwarber, and not reaching new contract extensions with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Báez or Willson Contreras — would have been another PR disaster that exposed a lack of imagination and direction.
Dansby Swanson was the second-most-valuable defensive player in MLB last year, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average.
The Chicago Cubs could be dark-horse contenders for the division in 2023.@keithlaw explains why.https://t.co/0eT1xn9VdY
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 18, 2022
Especially since there are so many good baseball reasons to sign Swanson, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft out of Vanderbilt University. Pairing Swanson with Nico Hoerner will give Cubs pitchers elite up-the-middle defense at a time when restrictions on defensive shifts will again highlight the need for athleticism. The Cubs are looking for a defense-first catcher — Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali and Roberto Perez are among the names under consideration — to share the workload with Yan Gomes and help replace Contreras. From left to right, the Cubs will have three Gold Glove-caliber defenders across the outfield in Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki.
While young hitters became the stars of their last championship team, the 2016 Cubs revolved around pitching and defense, particularly when Báez and Addison Russell played together in the middle of the infield. The Cubs are reorienting in that direction with Swanson and Hoerner, who could be signed to a long-term contract extension this winter. Cubs officials went into meetings with Swanson, Turner, Correa and Bogaerts knowing that Hoerner would move off shortstop to second base because he prioritizes winning above individual status.
Looking around the Wrigley Field clubhouse this past season, there were a lot of new faces, people who were just happy to be there or simply trying to survive at the major-league level. After Freddie Freeman left Atlanta, Braves teammates nicknamed Swanson “The Sheriff,” a sign of respect for someone who played in 382 out of a possible 383 games across the past three seasons. Swanson will bring some of the intangibles that the Cubs have lost and are trying to recover, setting an example with his preparation.
Swanson also perfectly timed his best season, producing 25 home runs, 96 RBIs, 18 stolen bases, his first Gold Glove and his All-Star selection (plus 182 strikeouts) before hitting a free-agent market that exploded under these conditions. The baseball industry’s sense of security from a new labor deal, the lure of expanded playoffs, and supply-and-demand forces all helped Swanson cash in before his 29th birthday.
During the Winter Meetings, Turner set the pace with his 11-year, $300 million contract with the Phillies, and then Bogaerts smashed expectations by signing an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres. Correa topped them both by scoring a 13-year, $350 million commitment from the Giants. The terms of Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal, which were confirmed via multiple sources on Saturday, have to be viewed in that context.
In terms of “Similarity Scores” on Baseball-Reference, the player whose profile most resembles Swanson through the age of 28 is Marcus Semien, who signed a seven-year, $175 million contract with the Rangers last offseason. The comparative names on that top-10 list include Juan Uribe, J.J. Hardy, Ian Desmond, Didi Gregorious, and ex-Cubs shortstops Alex Gonzalez and Shawon Dunston. Swanson (.738 career OPS) is not an offensive superstar, but the Cubs are betting on his power surge in recent seasons as well as his ability to stay healthy and stick as an infielder through 2029.
At this point, what was the alternative? Funds earmarked for baseball operations are still there from last season, as Kenney pointed out during a recent interview with the team’s flagship radio station. The team doesn’t have many building blocks at the major-league level. The organization’s best hitting prospects are dealing with injury issues and/or years away from fully establishing themselves at Wrigley Field. The next class of free agents already looks underwhelming. Half-measures didn’t work when the Cubs attempted to keep their championship window open for 2019 through 2021. Sprinkling in larger deals for Suzuki and Marcus Stroman last offseason made sense only if the Cubs had the appetite for bigger moves this winter. The riskiest play right now was doing nothing.
(Photo: Geoff Burke / USA Today)
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